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CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 4:00am EST
consumption of the china's middle class. so i think it all is positive sentiments. the government is pumping more money, drive the infrastructure development. and i think that in the medium term over say the next couple months, the losses should be much better. >> all right. andrew, thank you. stick around. we'll come back to you you and talk more about the luxury sector. nick has views, as well, on the chinese stock market. speaking to cnbc a day after delivering his autumn statement in parliament, he said the budget plan would continue to attract investment to the british dealt markets. >> we have to get a control on spending. that's why i'm operating benefits by less than the rates of inflation. it's forecast to continue to fall, so we are making progress. britain started with a large deficit, but we're getting it down. >> you've drawn criticism about the lack of supporting growth. when will we see measures that booth the long term growth of the economy. >> i think you see two sorts of measures. big structural reforms to education and welfare, but also yesterday changes to our tax regime.
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 7:00pm EST
president obama he should bail out detroit bankrupt city government, too. this sure isn't the free market, and i asked why should a texas taxpayer bail out detroit? >>> breaking news from syria, and it is a blockbuster. the assad regime is walking and loading its chemical weapons, ready to use them on its own people. nbc's chief pentagon correspondent joins us now. jim, is this the red line president obama was warning about? >> well, not quite yet. u.s. officials tell us that the syrian military is poised to use chemical weapons against their own people, and all it would take really is the final order from syrian president assad. but we have learned that as of today, all the precursored chemicals for that deadly nerve gas have in fact now been loaded on to aerial bombs, but those bombs are still in the depots. they haven't been loaded on to airplanes yet, and president assad hasn't given the order. but they're pretty close, larry, and that's why earlier this week, of course, president obama issued a very strong statement aimed at president assad saying look, if you use these weapon
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 6:00am EST
for government spending and you've got bloated government already, you start there. you start at government spending. you don't immediately start spending another 50 billion in stimulus. >> that's going to be the question that boehner has to deal with. the president will have to deal with the far wings of his party. boehner started doing it. did you see they removed two tea party members from the budget committee? >> i don't want to raise taxes to fund 25% of gdp. >> and actually, the american taxpayers are being told to pay their fair share. they want to see real entitlement reform as well. but you have to deal with the issue on the table. i mean, the spending right now is a percentage of gdp is 24%. it's projected to go substantially higher. do you know that medicare and medicaid didn't exist 50 years ago and they're now a quarter of the federal budget? >> i know. it was supposed to be supplemental. david walker was on the other day talking about obama care which is supposed to save us a trillion dollars and the actual cost, what it added the our entitlement is 12 trillion. jus
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 2:00pm EST
going to call it the great income shift. basically it could leave state and federal governments with huge budget holes and another big defense dit problicit probl. here's how it works. companies have announced more than 23 million inn in dividends this year alone, including 2013 dividends being paid today. investors are also selling stocks in companies and real estate before that clip. we have billions of dollars in income being shifted from 2013 to today. that means federal and state governments will see a tax bonanza this year and a tax plunge next year. the risk here is that governments assume that this year's tax boom is the new normal and they spend accordingly. we'll then have big deficits in 2013. now we have been here before. this happened in california in 2 dhou 2001. capital gains boomed, then crashed. people front loaded their income when they expect it to go up, just like they're doing today. cap gains doubled to $52 billion, then the next year they crashed to $33 billion. the government struggled to fill that hole. the lesson here is that tax changes create huge spikes a
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 4:00pm EST
telephone. >> well, those tense of thousands of anti-government protesters who did the marching on the presidential palace were initially met by riot police who blocked off all approaches to the symbolic seat of power, the palace. these protester were calling loudly for an end to president morsi's decrees. we know they've given him near absolute power. they also call for a cancelling of that snap referendum that he's called for to ratify a draft constitution, which many critics here are saying favors egypt's islamists. at one point, the police were seen firing tear gas into the crowd, but that backfired when some protesters broke through police lines. police then dropped back, regrouped, and order soon returned. eventually morsi's motorcade was seen leaving the palace. then the police slowly left the area as well, leaving it to a lot of baffled protesters, wondering what to do. many of them went home at that point. maria, the opposition calmed this protest a last warning. it may give them a shot in the arm. they did look good tonight and looked like they had strength. today, several ne
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 4:00am EST
canada and zero growth in the uk. locally, cutbacks in government spending weighed on the numbers and lower commodity prices also impacted on cash flow and the government is facing more criticism about its effort to keep the budget in surplus while the economy grows. >> the government has had the objective of making sure that we would bring our budget back to surplus when growth has been around trend. what we've been seeking to do through good budget policy has been to provide maximum flexibility to the reserve bank to a just rate so. the government will always put in place appropriate budget settings which will support growth and jobs. >> still, analysts say growth could slow further as the mining investment boom peaks. yesterday, the bank of australia cut interest rates to a record low of 3% and traders are looking further easing next year to offset the falling talks of trade, the high australian daughter and further cutbacks in government spending. >> despite that prognosis for rates and the fact that we're now matching the record lows here, the aussie/dollar actually rose. is the
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 7:00pm EST
here, but are they all blowing smoke at us? do you see any real downsizing of the federal government? do you see us returning to the basic functions of what government should be that would stop us from going bankrupt? >> all due respect to this impressive -- pretty much everyone everywhere is blowing smoke. we're talking ridiculous opening offers. gladly give you a dollar tomorrow for a hamburger today. i would say there's absolutely no reason to think that spending cuts are going to happen, especially if they were not put into the absolute top line of a proposal that's happening today right now. the notion that somehow we'll raise taxes and we'll get -- >> it's at manana. >> but you don't want the spending cuts soon. >> you'll get the sequester. >> here's where i disagree with my keynesian brethren. i believe lower spending is stimulative. i believe lower spendic -- >> how is that working out for britain? >> the trouble with britain is they raised their tax rate, which they then have to lower again. in fact the trouble will you all of europe is they are raising taxes the why is it t
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 4:00am EST
want a bit more openness and a bit more maybe truth from the government. >> silvia, thanks for your thoughts on all of that. if more year joined by julian. welcome. you're out with a view on your next year that doesn't sound too rosy. you talk about the economy contracting half a percent. challenges in the core countries. so walk us through how important the german vote is tomorrow and whether greece gets its aid as to the more broad brooutlook. >> the outlook is not improving. it's deteriorating for the eurozone. economic fundamentals are getting worse particularly in the countries of germany and france. these are the countries we revise down the most. in the periphery, there are signs that the recession is stabilizing. we're below the consensus. typical view is that the economy will broadly stagnate next year, we think it will continue to shrink and the ecb will continue to cap interest rates and perhaps at shall point the bond buying program will be in spain. >> and so when we talk about the sequence of events that markets are looking for the next couple of months, the main one s
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 6:00am EST
leading investment professionals predict a shorp stock decline in the market if the government fails to come up with a deal. in this case defined as a more than 10% drop in the dow. 56% surveyed foresee a deal to avoid the cliff by year end, 44% predict failure in the ongoing negotiations. as for corporate america, through yesterday's close, there have been # 70 announcements of special dividends. these special difference deebds are valueded a more than $30.1 billion. among the latest names, mcgraw hill will pay a special dividends of $2.50 a share before year end. and drop its previously announced plan to buy back up to $200 million more of stock this year. >> everybody's paid their dividends this year, so they won't be paying them next year. >> this is a major issue. what's going to happen is -- we have two great economists onset. but that money will get annualized, so the 30 in the gdp accounts is 120. they'll multiply it by four on the dividends income. it's quarter to quarter change at an annualized rate. so it's times four. there is the marginal propensity of those people
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 6:00am EST
allege its capital would have fallen to dangerous levels that might have required a government bailout. a lot of people weren't marking things where needed to go. >> i have a lot of questions about this story. it's an amazing allegation. $12 billion in paper losses. >> a lawyer from one of the whistle blowers will join us at 6:50. in a statement to cnbc, the bank says that allegations have already been investigated and all accounting was proper. >> my biggest questions are the allegations say the bank was doing it 2007 to 2010 and nobody came forward until late 2011 to make any complaints. i just wonder if you had been complaining the whole time along -- >> we just had this discussion about how far away do you need to be to where it's a false mark. at least 10% wiggle room. there were no buyers. if there is buyers, does that make it zero. >> basel 2 created a system that if things became less liquid, there is no change in the actual value of of the underlying asset. just couldn't sell it. so it's a bit like saying my house is a lesser asset because i can't accept it right now even thou
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 2:00pm EST
-- everyone. but i don't do it by giving the money to the government and letting them dole it out because if i give $5 million to the government, $10,000 goes to the people, and 4 million-plus-change goes into the pockets of the politicians. i give directly to the people and i have been doing this all along. for example in orange walk i bought $300 boots for every single police officer because they didn't have any. and i gave it directly to the police department with the demand that i have an inventory of who they went to. now how can you skim money from that? they don't have an opportunity to take. i do not donate to any political party. when i was asked to donate, i said get the f-- off my propert. excuse me. >> john, don't worry about it. we do apologize to our viewers about that. listen, it is live tv, it's cable and it has happened before. i see you donated $100,000 to the san pedro police department recently. at least you wrote that on your blog. how much money do you have left? >> not very much because i'm having difficulty getting some from my bank. oddly enough, i don't know why tha
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 7:00pm EST
of the community that's addicted to the government. so one question is what do we do about the welfare state. another question is whether we shut our borders and allow for some type of comprehensive plan to allow for people to come in here and live free. as long as we have welfare, larry you're not going to be able to address the immigration problem and say oh, this will be fine for now. >> i understand. to be honest, i agree with you but i think most of them come here to work. i believe that in my heart and i think the statistics tend to show that. >> two between rations ago, larry. two generations ago, not now. >> star u-can't give up otherwise you'll never elect another republican. the same thing will be true with asians. they people come network. they have a good entrepreneurial background. they are church going people. the point is that community going to pay any minds to the gop if they still believe republicans will deport them, throw them back over the border. don't let the kids go to local schools if the parents came illegally. don't let the kids go to texas colleges t
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 4:00pm EST
think we could do something good for the economy. we can make the government use the taxpayers' money more efficiently, lock in some spending savings and do some long-term entitlement reforms to make sure americans feel like they can retire with dignity. >> i want to make sure we're talking about apples and apples here, which is so hard in this discussion. the $800 billion which the republicans put forward, which would be a cap on deductions, how does that compare with how far the information is prepared to go when it comes to raising revenue from capping deductions? >> we don't actually know what the republicans think they can do in that context yet, because they haven't told us how they would propose to raise the $800 billion. we don't know whose taxes would go up. we don't know the mixes of rates and limitations they would support. we think there's a good case as part of an agreement alongside a tax increase on the wealthiest 2% of americans. we think with that mix of rates and deductions, we can reach agreement on something that's very good for the country. >> do you have a
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 6:00pm EST
call this a wake-up call to government officials and the utilities they regulate all over this country to finally start fixes or infrastructure. it's not that the storm knocked out power. one of the reasons why it took days or even weeks for people in new york or new jersey to get electricity back is because our grid is outdated. did you know that 30% of our infrastructure is already beyond its useful life. another 30% is approaching the end of its usefulness. this equipment should have been replaced ages ago. one of the reasons why you're disgusted in the northeast about what happened, and you have right to be. after sandy i think we'll finally start tackling this issue and start taking it seriously. one of the reasons is our lousy electrical grid is also a security threat. heaven forbid a terrorist wanted to do some damage. all they would have to do is knock out a couple power substations, which are sdwrenlly only protected by chain-link fence. take a look at this clip. doesn't that look like something out of a science fiction movie where aliens are invading? escape from new york par
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 7:00pm EST
of the paper dollar bill for hard coins. the government report finds the move could save taxpayers nearly $4.5 billion over 40 years. on the flip side of that coin is now the time for a return of a gold-backed dollar as legal tender. let's talk about this. we have the chairman of the american principles project. shawn i can never understand why first of all gold coin, which really circulate throughout the economy, but sort of like contraband. they're not regarded as legal tender and i think they should be. >> it's certainly the constitutional solution, larry. the states have the right to use gold and silver coin as legal tender. and federal tax law currently prohibits them from doing it. utah has pd th legislation. we're really waiting for the secretary of the treasury to allow them to implement it. >> if you went to a silver or ali aluminum dollar, it's interesting the whole story what are going to put into the dollar. steel, aluminum and zinc. if you had a dollar with steel, aluminum and zinc and a dollar that was gold which would do better in the marketplace in your opinion? >>
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 9:00am EST
. >> and nat gas gets a boost. the government finds exporting it is better than keeping it here at home. >> apple as we mentioned in the spotlight today, shares of the tech giant coming off their worst day in four years, sliding back into bear market territory. the one day loss erased nearly $35 billion in market cap. that chunk is bigger than 400 other s&p 500 companies. apple ceo tim cook talked to nbc's brian williams in our rock center exclusive. >> why can't you be a made in america company? >> you know, this i found, as a matter of fact, the engine in here is made in america. and not only are the engines in here made in america, but engines are made in america and are exported. the glass on this phone is made in kentucky. so we have been working for years on doing more and more in the united states, next year, we will do one of our existing mac lines in the united states. >> you can see the entire interview with tim cook tonight on rock center, that's 10:00 eastern time on your local nbc station, but for now investors are watching the market. apple shares 5.31, which is close
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 7:00pm EST
needs to expand the government. i wish the majority of the middle class saw it that way. more than half the country felt that his left wing agenda was it. it isn't eventually the middle class is going to get nailed. and the spin will be that republicans jacked up the economy so badly. >> i think that is where this is going. i think there could be a tax and maybe it can't get through congress. but i have never seen a time, i have seen polls on this. taxing the rich. they know that. one last point here. going from government to welfare getting a job. do you know there is a high tax rate? we have to figure out a way to make it work so that people don't get hurt. >> i think the government is probably 80% too large. that would be a tremendous engine to close the gap between the rich and the poor. they can will to their children. we don't have that now. i think that is the engine of both in the conneconomy. but i'm not going to give up the fight. larry elder. well done. good luck on the book and the radio show. >> let's get to good news. i'm going to take a closer look at sunshine next u
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 9:00am EST
people are@@ pointing to the fact that there's less stimulus than expected coming from the government. they haven't said anything but that's not the problem. this has been going on now for months and months on end. selling shanghai and buying into hong kong. there's a couple problems. number one, shanghai is completely domestic market. let's face it. less sophisticated investors and too many shares of shanghai stocks out there. the owners of these stocks have flooded the market, carl, in the last couple of years with too many shares. so there are way too many shares of these stocks on the market and this constant calls to buyback stocks from mainland china. the important thing here is hong kong is an international market. international investors can get in on that deal. that's why i think -- i don't know how jim feels about this. if you ask who is right shanghai or hong kong, i would go more with hong kong outlook than shanghai outlook. >> totally agree. great report. >> i want to get back to phil lebeau on ford. brought us numbers but now predictions on production next year. >> the k
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 4:00am EST
headlines. draghi uses his speech to turn up the heat on eurozone governments telling leaders into the to rely on the ecb to stabilize the currency bloc. germany's finance minister warns a greek default could spell the end of the euro as the country's lawmakers prepare to vote on new funds for athens. and japan posts surprisingly strong industrial output this october and the government announces a $10.8 billion stimulus package. tokyo stocks end the week at a seven month high. plus president obama will take his case for tax hikes on the wealthy to the american people today as the war of words between democrats and republicans over the fiscal cliff heats up. >>> the trading session sitting roughly flat on the stoxx 600. decliners and advancers about even this morning. markets are trying to digest these comments from draghi. first, let's take a look at the bourses. s it is the last trading day of the month. just one left to go in this extraordinary 2012. ibex 35 appropriately enough is ending in the red today. other indexes showing a little bit of a rise here. we've seen spanish and ital
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 6:00am EST
, merkel's government had ruled out forgiving any debt. >> in corporate new, ubs is reportedly close to a settlement. the "new york times" says the swiss bank is expected to pay horn $450 million over claims that some of its employees submitted false libor rates. that's pretty huge story and we will take a look and ten to see what happens with this. also morgan stanley trader is under investigation by cme regulators over trades and treasury futures four years ago. at the time he was employed by goldman sachs. he's now head of global interest rates products at morgan stanley. the probe is aimed at establishing whether hadden's late trades hat manipulate closing prices and made other trades more profitable. also singapore airline says that it is in talks with interested parties to sell its 49% stake in virgin atlantic. delta is reportedly among the potential suit ors. delta is said to want to gain access on injury gain's landing rights at london heathrow. >> biggest international hub h around. i think an dwderson is really g. it's profitable and we had the story about the older jets. just i
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 6:00pm EST
don't want to buy the a shares, look at taiwan ewt. government is supporting that market. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks so much for watching. we have the ceo of lu lu. see you back here tomorrow night for more >>> i'm jim cramer. and welcome to my world. you need to get in the game. going out of business and he's nuts, they're nuts! they know nothing! i always like to say there's a bull market somewhere, and i promise -- "mad money," you can't afford to miss it. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to save you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to coach you and teach you. so call mel at 1-800-743-cnbc. it is so easy to be negative right now! >> boo! >> incredibly easy. and when the gloom lifts. >> the house of pain. >> it almost feels like a reprieve from some sort of stock market death sentence. as it did today with the dow climbing 83 points. the nasdaq declined .77%. largely because of apple, more on that later. now, i am not dismissive of the negativity that i see pretty much everywhere
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 3:00pm EST
end of the scale. they're readily available to almost every government in the region. many gulf states have them. intelligence indicates that the iranians either stole or perhaps bought this from under the table from some gulf state nation. but it doesn't appear that according to the u.s. navy, anyway, that there's any truth to the claims that the iranians actually seized a u.s. navy drone. >> all right, jim. thanks very much. >> we want to get to mary thompson. we have more breaking news right now on the arrest of a trader. mary. >> hey there, bill. this is about a securities trader, david miller. he's been arrested for wire fraud and charged with wire fraud by the connecticut u.s. attorney. in a statement, the u.s. attorney from connecticut stating this defendant orchestrated the unauthorized purchase of approximately $1 billion of apple stock in a fraudulent get-rich-quick scheme that back fired, causing massive losses for his employer. once again, rockdale securities trader david miller arrested and charges with wire fraud. back to you. >> all right, mary. thanks very much.
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 1:00pm EST
wires saying that the office of management and budget has told government agencies to prepare for the possibility of sequestration spending cuts. although the white house says it is still confident of reaching a deal, that took the market off of its best levels of the day. ty? >> sue, thank you very much. >>> today we're doing "analyze this" a little differently. we're going to analyze the headlines. why? because we can do what we want to right here. jim iuorio, director of tjm institutional services joins me now. talk about apple. research firm idc says apple will lose some tablet share. in addition, core clearing in margin requirements from and toll 60. then there is a death cross of some thing -- >> don't put too much weight in it. idc said they'd lose this much market share in the tablet market which is exploding. i don't think it is a big deal. the apple story begins and ends with people taking capital gains taxes before they could potentially go up. what stock has had more loyal people in it longer and acued more potential as capital gains than andle? almost none in my opini
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 4:00pm EST
to think that any industry or any taxpayer or any group of people who depend on government spending can be exempted from the serious problem that we have that's caused by this deficit is a mistake. everybody is going to have to pay for this. >> dawn, right or wrong, the defense industry has this reputation of being bloated, overcharging. are we at a point where we could afford to make cuts in defense spending to try and satisfy the needs of lowering the deficit in this country? >> you know, the real issue we've already seen through the budget control act, the defense has already witnessed significant cuts. i think when you're looking at the resolution here, resolving the negotiations so we don't go to the fiscal cliff, the real issue is everybody's got to participate. it's got to be a balanced approach. last monday -- well, earlier this week, 130 ceos in the aerospace defense industry sent a letter to the president saying we're urging a bipart son approach to this. it's got to be balanced. nobody is saying that defense isn't going to share in that. right now, sequestration, $600 bil
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 6:00pm EST
plans and responsible governments stepped in. if you had been able to borrow a ton of money to buy them it would have worked. it may have been the single best investment of the 21st century. we are gripped by a similar hysteria about our own country. companies perceived to be the biggest loser. but it turned out to be an amazing trade. the stock traveled to $7.72. >> i can tell from the trading in the name it is not going to happen just yet. there are sellers everywhere. the only thing they have going for them is the debt. we know that when the cliff jump price jumps, well, i say the worst has been prepared for it. and key bank may be the worst of the bunch. it has been a terrible investment up until things turned. and then we will look back and say what were we thinking. why didn't we bid 7 and buy key bank instead of selling it like everybody else? stick with cram eexcramer. twins. i didn't see them coming. i have obligations. cute obligations, but obligations. i need to rethink the core of my portfolio. what i really need is sleep. introducing the ishares core, building blocks f
CNBC
Nov 28, 2012 7:00pm EST
republican, preserving some modicum of preegt market, limited government that lacks even small entertainment cuts and plaques spending cut. the see kwenter, that's gone, right? what is going nobody its place. >> supposedly. >> and mr. bainor has made it very clor that it sounded to me like mr. john boehner despites a's in they were to find ways to get to that number. the problem is as long as the pie stays the size that it, is you're not talking about significant changes that are going to have maybe ten-year changes long time for this kmirnt economy, when you begin to what the impact of this is 20, 30, 45 years a road. you're talking about the. >> my fear is that they've already given up on that. >> no, hold the line! i can hear you're getting excited about this, which pleases me to no end. i jufrs wanted to ask you why should john blaineor play ball if the president won't play ball back. in h and not sure sure about that and i'm not pessimistic. i heard the top tax rates are going to go up. all of come from. >> here's the problem, boehner is trying for sm reason he's trying to
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 9:00am EST
number. i think only u.s. government now can stop this kind of job growth. a fiscal cliff go over -- >> snatching victory from the jaws. >> a superstorm. nothing can stop the generation of jobs in this economy. >> there's a great article today in one of the papers about how apartment building, we have a shortage of apartments and shortage of housing and shortage of autos and shortage of office buildings developing, shortage of shopping centers, shortage of shopping malls. this is what begins a movement. you have to hire eventually. now you could say people are not looking for work, come on. look, jobs are here. they can -- it can be just easily reversed if you have no idea what is the future because of washington. >> given the data points that we've had in terms of claims numbers that did reflect an impact from sandy, they said 85,000 jobs or 86,000 jobs were sliced because of impact of sandy. average hours worked unchanged. doesn't that -- i don't know -- doesn't that bring into question a little bit the participation in the survey. how can it have no impact whatsoever? it seems
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 12:00pm EST
have these fiscal drags in the form of tax rates and government spending, number one. and number two, are they even close to the mark this year? they haven't been in recent years until we have gotten closer to the end. will this be yet another year where they're wildly off. >> yeah, so i'll answer the second question first. our forecast for 2013 is that we're going to have $99 in s&p earnings. the street is now at $113. i guess the good news is, we see the earnings troughing in the april time frame and beginning to grow after that. so you could have some earnings growth, which is i think more optimistic than where it was a year ago. but the problem is the consensus numbers have to come down. so your question is tricky, josh. i think everyone knows the numbers are going to come down. we're not paying for the $113 now. abo but as they come down, will you be afraid they go way lower. that's really the key debate, right? and i think people could be afraid around the fiscal cliff or around supply issues on oil or europe, you know, looking pretty weak. so there's a number of things tha
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 5:00pm EST
. >>> and nat gas revolution, the government says exporting nat gas could be a game changer for america's economy, but at what cost? we'll take a deeper dive to find some answers. but first, our top story tonight. >>> everyone cares about the fiscal cliff, except, seemingly, the markets. just 25 days until the year end deadline and still no deal out of washington. still stocks quietly climb higher. the dow closing today at a one-month high. what gives? just an assumption that a deal -- >> it almost gets back to that you never short. we're all waiting for some type of closure on the fiscal cliff. so everyone's afraid to take that stab in the dark and say, you know what? things look terrible. no matter how they paint the picture, things look slower in the next couple of quarters than they do right now. am i right? >> yeah. >> so global growth, you have everything coming in, global growth is going to be terrible. growth here around 2%, 2.5%. so people want to short the market, they're just so afraid to because every time they short it, it bounces right back. >> and it seems now with headline
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 11:00pm EST
liners refuse to rise above partisanship in order to avoid a government mandated recession, which is what it's tantamount to doing, but we can't even get them to promise no vacation without legislation! >> boo! >> they not only seem mean-spirited, petty, reckless, and angry down there in washington, they're also slothful. have you ever been able to say to your boss, walk in, you know, hey, man i know i've got a huge project due, one that could bring down the whole company if i don't finish, but darn it all, hey, see you later, sport, i'm taking a vacation. i'm out of here! not only do i advocate no vacation without legislation, i want to know, a new one for you. a litmus test. i want to know which of these bitter and indolent politicians have tickets in their pockets to fly out of washington next week. i'm not kidding. i think we should ask each politician we interview, have you purchased tickets to leave without getting your job done? what's the date on that ticket? i'm not asking you about the first class stuff. i want a date. so gloom is a perfectly good attitude when it comes
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 3:00pm EST
months. >> although, those revisions were almost all in government. mandy makes a good point. 150,000 a month, which has been the average over the past is a months or so, is not great. if this was a normal recovery, we'd be growing at 4% instead of 2 on gdp. employment would be well over 250. however, the good news in today's report was if you look at the household survey, there was clearly a hurricane effect in these numbers. we might actually have printed over 200 absent hurricane sandy. i would argue the trends is getting better. as jim pointed out, we need some clarity on the outlook, and the cliff is very important. if we go off the cliff, even if that number had been 250, the numbers still would weaken next year. >> jim, you have to make money in the meantime. where do you put your money? where are you putting money to work right now? >> well, i'm pessimistic. i share austin's view that i think we're going to go off the cliff and push this thing to february with the debt ceiling bill. as that reality comes in, the market is going to continue to struggle. i would avoid risky assets
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 4:00am EST
cash, equities, credit, government bonds, where do you want to be. and equity in my mind mind is absolutely not. you need good growth numbers to justify the equity markets going up. now, i think there's a lot of investors looking at the yields on ghoechlt bonds or credits and that's motivating them to move into equity. i think the numbers are actually going to be relatively small. and i would certainly advocate against doing that because as you were saying, weak numbers, unless you see some much stronger growth, it's hard to justify current valuations. >> both of you stick around because we'll talk about china in just a second. today we'll be out in tokyo, as well, to assess what options the bank of japan really has. policy will not be dictated by market opinion. we'll take stock of britain's progress towards deficit reduction, this ahead of the chancellor's autumn statement. senior fellow for international economics. will the numbers live up to the expectations. meanwhile, over in ghi narks the mainland's factories are crank out more goods at the fastest pace in month. >> chines
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 6:00am EST
particular company, this history of deals maybe some bad blood there between them and the government. but what we've seen is the industry minister coming out and again mentioning as you say that he's one of the more left wing officials in france, we get that, but still for him to sort of double down on those comments and say, no, actually, i look around, i see other countries nationalizing these companies. why shouldn't we, too. >> but i think they really do see certain of their companies as more a property of france than of shareholders. their yogurt company. >> but mattel bought france's arsenal back in 2006. so while it's a traditionally france company, it's very important example of cross border m&a. and this is a company again, an india company owned wouldby guy are french in their behaviors. stefane has been all over this kind of explaining the various ang angles. so as we're talking about other wealthy french leaving the country amid the tax hikes that you've been talking about, it's also a lot of the entrepreneurs here who are to some glee getting in the crosshairs of the gov
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 2:00pm EST
. government has stepped in with more spending and we think that could actually support the economy actually for the first half of the next year. >> dan, prediction time at cnbc. i'm going to ask you to give us one or two predictions for 2013. >> we're finishing up our outlook right now. we have a decidedly optimistic outlook for us. i think if we can get this fiscal cliff thing out of the way in the u.s., the case for the economy to expand at a 2% clip or so is pretty strong. in terms of the equity markets, we're going into the year thinking that the bias is top upside here. i think the trend that we've seen of late absent a stupidity mistake out of washington is likely to hold for the foreseeable future. >> a prediction for 2013 from you as well, gina, perhaps the one kwe can steal. >> we think we're more tempered. we think it is probably 1.6% growth but we'd agree there will probably and positive bias in the first half of the year and probably a more negative bias during the second half of the year. >> 1.6% growth, gina, stinks! that's not even growth. it's not even keeping up with inflat
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 3:00pm EST
listen to john mccain and we should agree to torture and torture these government officials. they locked themselves back in a room in the summer of 2011 and did nothing. we report as if this fiscal cliff were a bruce willis movie, an ast troid coming from outer space unexpectedly. this fiscal cliff was deliberately put in place. >> by these guys. >> by these people. >> on their watch. >> you hear harry reid go up there. the senate has been incapable of passing a budget for several years. >> four years. >> i'm not talking about the senate passing a budget and the house agreeing and the president sign. just that one chamber. >> you don't sound like you're hopeful they're going to get a deal done any time soon. >> i think the market is being complacent. i think there likely will be a deal before the super bowl in february. i'd say most likely. but those talks will break down before there's a deal. i'm not sure this market is prepared for a breakdown. >> christian, what about that? clearly, the market is not prepared for it because the market is hanging on every word from each side. w
CNBC
Dec 7, 2012 4:00am EST
in the government, but the pdl dismantling the party and creating tension. >> claudia, who at the moment is -- which of parties would get the most seats in terms of polls and stuff in who is leads and would it benefit them if we had early elections? >> it doesn't look like there would be a lot of change, but if the pdl doesn't have time to get an alternative, it just leave as stronger center left which showed a very positivout come the way it managed its primary. so they have the majority, the center left. and the green leaf party is after that which just takes away from the center right government. so at this moment, it is the center left. >> claudia, thanks for that. let's get to today's global market report. equities in europe as you can see weighted to the down side around about 6:4, decliners outpacing advancers 3:2. that kind of ratio. show you where we stand with european markets. ftse 100 just down three points. xetra dax flat. up 27% this year, at the highest levels now since 2008. fresh 52 week high we closed at yesterday, as well. cac 40 up between points. down 27 for t
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 6:00am EST
except trying to rein in government. >> the truth of the matter, what's a starting to happen is that international investors, the fact that we cannot govern is going to really come home to roost. >> gld man says this is the first time he's seen people take it out of american markets. >> it's he supposed to work this w way. they can't govern either. >> i was so hopeful, i wasn't obviously thrilled with the election results, but i actually thought that result might be the result we needed to get thefshs done. >> in a way you you have the situation where -- >> you extend 98 but not the 2? believing that story is so -- >> either raise them on everyone or raise them on -- either it will hurt the economy if you raise taxes or it's not. on 98 it won't hurt, on 2 it will -- >> we'll have more on this argument. in the meantime, let's talk about some of the other headlines. financial firms are gathering for the goldman sachs financial services contractors. a key presenter is brian money tha moynihan. we talked about his reports of planned fee increases. plus there was the issue of president ob
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 4:00pm EST
moving to a different inflation adjustment for social security and other government programs. they also talk about reform of medicare to include private sector competition with a traditional fee for service medicare plan. all of those are things that are within the zone of discussion that both -- between the two of the parties. now, president obama went on twitter this afternoon, took questions from the public to try to build pressure on republicans. he got one question from an average person saying, well, will my mortgage interest deduction be threatened by these fiscal cliff talks? and the president used that as a lever to say, that's why rates have to go up, because if they don't, they're going to sister to squeeze middle class deductions. that's the president trying to put pressure on. but i think now that we have offers on paper from both sides, there at least is a prospect we'll have more serious bargaining in the days ahead. >> yes. and that is good news. thank you so much, john harwood with the latest there. more now on the fiscal cliff. one of the industries with the most at st
CNBC
Dec 6, 2012 6:00pm EST
gratefulness, even if we think the government may be profligate with our money. enough already! i want others to do well too. so don't get the idea -- i'm not against the next guy doing better. the idea is that the small business person that everyone claims to be looking out for and the middle class people everyone pledges to, they do need a chance. but here's what the polls are missing, we are seeing rumblings if washington would stop intruding and go away and agree to a sacrifice. i know some are saying the president's taking a hard line. and i was none too happy with the press conference. if democrats don't get their way, i was preplexed by the rhetoric. as perplexed as grover norquist, the unelected head of the republican party can insist that voting for any tax increase after pledging to his organization not to vote for a tax increase is a death sentence for your political career. listen up, washington, we get a deal, any deal at this point we could have an economic boom that would make the benefits of even a bad deal done far outweigh the cost small business to the middle class,
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 11:00pm EST
taxes on dividends. government spending sliced where it should be and and the bloated defense budget. unnecessary social programs. me? i think we aren't where we need to be yet when the it comes to abandoning all the hope. i think the postfiscal cliff world has -- not to matter. those people are polyannas. i think we go into a recession with lots of layoffs and the fiscal cliff was designed to compromise. the cliff was designed to scare legislators into rising above politics and compromise. everyone knew about the growth. just like in europe. means it could be, in fact, reduced dramatically. fewer jobs, larger deficit. not smaller. and the federal reserve that's throwing up its hands, can't do anything. as i said last night, it doesn't matter. we can pick our stocks and buy them down. like the fabulous names, amazon, ulta salons. buy them down in scales like i outline in the book "real money." now suggesting other groups giving you a bang for the buck. new groups betting that the hope will be squeezed out and the bottom gets put in before a deal is made -- or not. why not? we know th
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 6:00am EST
, revenue has increased to the federal government by $344 billion per year. if we just return to a normal economy like we had in 2007, those policies of george bush where we had 18.5% of our economy coming to the federal government as revenue, that would be another $419 billion. so combined, that would be $750 billion per year of additional revenue. now, president obama's proposal of punishing success, it's hard to say exactly what it will be, but somewhere around $75 billion. it's a tenth of what we get with economic growth. and the rob with punishing success, with increasing marginal tax rates or really increasing taxes, is you put at risk that growth that is ten times more effective. so again, i'm just looking at what works. and we need to calm the markets. i don't want to play brinksmanship. it's a unfortunate that the president really isn't negotiating in good faith. he's just moving the goal posts. >> although the lead story on the "wall street journal" is about how the president may be relaxing that position. he may not insist on returning to the pre-bush tax cut rates for those we
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 4:00am EST
financial forces are going to force any government that comes into power to more or less stick to the plan morsi set out. on the other hand, there's always spain, the worries that with 25% unemployment, that you would see the default rate particularly on residential mortgages shoot up, it's 3% now, which is pretty amazing given the struggles within the economy, but we think it will go up somewhat, but really not any more than people have already priced in. >> and then ten year yields, 5.24%. at the moment, relatively speaking, pretty comfortable. >> maybe a little bit too comfortable and we certainly don't want to get complace complacent.yields are where they were say in march of this year and then subsequently they shot up to 7.5%. we know with the draghi put that that won't happen, but we don't want to think that there is only one way -- >> yesterday said, look, sort of the idea of the risk on phrase, certainly for -- he was looking at it from credit markets, but would stay on until the middle >> i think lite bit more selective. it won't be just everything goes up now. we have to st
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 12:00pm EST
government employees insurance company, or geico...as most of you know members it.congress. ...i propose savings for everyone! i'm talking hundreds here... and furthermore.. newscaster:breaking news. the gecko is demanding free pudding. and political parties that are actual parties!? with cake! and presents! ah, that was good. too bad nobody could hear me. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. >>> our thesis is that with a pretty big deficit/debt problem ultimately you'll have to unwind some of the stimulus and that would be bad for the market multiples in the interim. >> well, that was one of the street's biggest bears, morgan stanley's adam parker. our next guest has an entirely different opinion and he says stocks are going sharply higher over the next few months regardless of what happens in washington. barry bannister joins us now live. barry, it's nice to see you. >> hi. >> i'd call you a market bull, but i'd be doing you a disservice. you are looking for 1600 in just the next couple of months. how in the world will we get there? >> well, w
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 1:00pm EST
public debt have in the sense that the national insurance and government organizations cannot possibly endure further haircut because they've already had their deposits -- it remains to be seen. greek banks have volunteered already but i don't think that is sufficient in order to make this greek public debt sustainable down to 120% by 2020. so we're going to be living through another cliffhanger in the next three to four months. however, i think that if the greek government proceeds with the necessary deep reforms and for example, dispensing with red tape and introducing the red carpet treatment for both local and foreign investors, via competitive tax system which is going to be voted in later on this month and the privatization scheme i think they will be on the right track. >> you're here for the ceremonial function of ringing the closing bell later today but you're really here to drum up investments in greece. why today, given all of the uncertainties, given the fact that the greek economy is floundering a bit, why would i choose to invest there now? >> tyler, think that the level
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 4:00pm EST
-term contracts. the government is in support of energy independence in this country, so we don't think the taxes change for mlps and energy infrastructure investments. finally, if you like high-yield corporate bonds, we love high-yield municipal bonds where we're getting 6% federally tax free. corporate high yield has rallied too much. we've sold it. >> rick santelli, should we be focusing on something else? this constant focus on the fiscal cliff, obviously, it's been dictating sentiment. it's been dictating markets. are there other areas that investors should be looking at? >> well, i had a guest this morning, dr. saunders, who's testified on issues regarding housing, fha, in front of congress. he knows what he's talking about. he brought up what many of us are looking at. a lot of -- you know, real estate, residential construction was one of the positives in today's gdp report. we've seen a lot of positives in housing. but there's been a lot of legal ranging over a big group of foreclosures that looks like it's cleaned itself up. 2013 could see a lot of these dumped in the marketpla
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 9:00am EST
to wait. >> the chinese government had been definitely a stumbling block there and people are very excited about it. they really like android over there. i defaulted to david from "the new york times" as saying there are 275,000 apps for apple. one of the develop storingie ii looking at is chinese products to california to the rest of the country and there's a lot of ports being shot. >> national retail federation said that a lot of product for the holiday season is already in the stores. so maybe it won't be a huge impact and maybe that product can be routed to other ports to mexico and then trucked up. maybe it's a good thing for truckers and fedex and u.p.s.s of the world if the product isn't in the store already, retailers need to get it quickly, good for overnight shippers. >> they have all of the stuff in. that's a good point. ksu rang the bell the other day. they're instrumental in bringing goods from mexico. very interesting. >> look at those freight volume which is they report next. meantime, got to talk zynga taking a hit in the premarket. social gaming company changing i
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 12:00pm EST
ongoing insider trading investigation that the government has lost. cohen has not been charged personally. there's no indication those plans are coming down the road. he was not part of the wells notice the firm received last week, reportedly. nonetheless, questions surround about his involvement as well as his plans to potentially retire sometime soon reported in the "wall street journal" this morning. an s.a.c. spokesperson tells me the notion that cohen is soon to retire is utterly false. nonetheless, from what i'm hearing there's a lot of question from within the firm about cohen's situation and what the legal issues are as they continue to unfold, scott. we'll bring you more details of that as we learn them, again, after the close of trading today. >> quickly, what happens if steve cohen no longer is running s.a.c.? >> scott, it's hard to fathom the firm going on without his vo involvement. not only is the fast majority of their capital under management either steve cohen's or other insiders, but most of it is cohen himself. he keeps a very tight reign on the trading. he h
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 5:00pm EST
he is not personally entangled in this current government investigation. well, rather in the current government complaint over insider trading allegations against a former trader as well as one of sac's subsidiary units. there was talk that he may be charged in the coming months, but the staff has reassured them it'sed a rye s ed advisers that chargcharg charged along with a doctor who allegedly provided information to this insider. not cohen personally. as far as i'm told, the staff mood has been relatively stable. people are obviously concerned, but cohen has been going around and actually meeting with portfolio managers one on one, melissa, to try to reassure them this should be business as usual and he's not going anywhere. >> it's karen. let me ask you something. if there is liability for the firm, who bears that liability? do the investors in the firm, or when they say the firm, is that equity owners of the firm? >> in this case, they put safeguards in place a few years ago such that steve cohen is personally financially responsible for any legal issues. so lawyer fees
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 3:00pm EST
starting to see a slowdown in the job loss from the government sector. so, i think we're going to be seeing a better than half speed recovery. so, you do want to be taking a balanced approach. we do favor the consumer discretionary at this point offsetting with health care. >> gentlemen, thank you. more breaking news coming away right now. thanks for your thoughts. appreciate it. >> we have the letter. let's get to eamon javers. >> this is the letter speaker boehner sent to the president of the united states. the language he's choosing is important to understand, as he draes the president. the speaker saying, after a status quo election in which both you and the republican majority in the house were re-elected, the american people rightly expect both parties to come together on a fair middle ground and address the nation's most pressing challenges. the speaker characterizing this as a status quo election. that's not the way the white house sees it. the white house sees it as an election they won and they picked up seats in the congress. the speaker here reminding the president, hey,
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